A mere two months prior that Morgan Rogers stood on the pitch at Sunderland, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery berated him over not reading a pass in behind. During that period, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained if his performances were an indicator or the reason of the team's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, in contrast, the sideline response proved to be decidedly more positive. As the in-form star swept in his brace-sealing goal to reclaim his side's advantage, the boss discarded his jacket, opened his arms and bellowed. The team continued to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning any of their first six matches, find themselves only three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?
This is an exceptionally difficult question to resolve. The historical record, the perceived status of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been entirely convincing in many games, even as the positive results have stacked up.
As per the data, twice all season has the side registered an xG significantly higher than the other team. For a side that have just won 10 in a row, they appear strangely fragile – yet right now the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
The current approach looks like to trade blows with the opposition before hoping their talisman to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired in London, and once more against United.
The initial strike originated from a superb shot, curled just inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first as he seized on a pass from Watkins.
“Much like Robben with his left, Rogers’ right foot has become a known threat that remains brutally unstoppable, regardless of anticipation.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. During the latest victory, the opponents registered more shots and more shots on target. The team has secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those matches.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent the club have to face as the season progresses. Their key man, in all likelihood, will not continue to drilling the football into the net's top corner week in, week out.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists an alternative path whereby, rather than luck running out, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Key players may yet rediscover their best form.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the player he showed during his peak.
- The injured centre-backs are set to return from injury, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Maybe within that lies the potential of a genuine bid, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Enjoying the Ride
But then, this is a surprise. It seemed improbable Villa would sit third at Christmas. And certainly back in October, nobody thought the young forward now would be spearheading a hunt for the title while establishing himself as a crucial player for the national team.
This winning streak must be cherished exactly since it seems so surreal. As the match-winner faced the North End after the match leading the celebrations, he seemed to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods do not happen often and ought to be celebrated.
