A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two respected writers from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," stated the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the idea that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should determine what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has possesses important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
